employers added jobs at a strong pace in June, a sign that the recovery in the
world’s largest economy is continuing at a steady clip after a woeful set of
first quarter GDP figures.
payrolls increased by 288,000 jobs, the Labor Department said on Thursday (July
3rd), beating expectations for a 212,000-215,000 gain.
the jobless rate slid to a six-year trough. Unemployment fell to 6.1 percent,
the lowest since September 2008.
April and May figures were revised up to show a total 29,000 more jobs were
added in the two months.
data sparked a big surge in USD, which climbed around half a percent against
the safe haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
also saw EUR/USD slide to one-week low and the greenback notch up further gains
against its Australian counterpart, which had already come under selling
pressure as the Reserve Bank of Australia said the Aussie was “overvalued” and
urged investors to expect a “significant fall” soon.
jobs data supports further tapering by the Federal Reserve, and indicates the
central bank could be closer to tightening than many think.
while the short-term jobs outlook is the US is improving, what is the longer
at Morningstar are pessimistic - they think employment in the US will never
fully recover to its pre-crisis levels.
Strauts, Senior Markets Research Analyst at the firm, has looked at the
relationship between recessions and employment recovery since 1950. He says the
historical data suggests that job growth has slowed significantly in the past
notes that since 2000 there have been two “significant” downturns in jobs,
while the period of expansion was weaker than could be expected.
the most recent contraction, starting 2008, the US economy shed 6.3 percent of
jobs - double the long-term average of three percent. Also, the length of time
to recover these jobs took a lot longer than previously - 76 months, versus an
historical average of just 32 months.
Strauts, the key change in this period has been advances in technology and
example, how many toll collectors are there today versus 20 years ago?” he
says. “And so in the year ahead, since technology is only going to get better
and automation will take more and more jobs, we expect job growth will continue
at its tepid pace.”